Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 24 2020 | 7336 | 37074 | 231 | 56 | 1710 | 2113 |
| November 25 2020 | 7479 | 37323 | 237 | 56 | 1614 | 2187 |
| November 26 2020 | 7563 | 37502 | 239 | 57 | 1414 | 2088 |
| November 27 2020 | 7563 | 37665 | 241 | 57 | 1312 | 2021 |
| November 28 2020 | 7661 | 37844 | 243 | 57 | 1059 | 2035 |
| November 29 2020 | 7756 | 37967 | 243 | 57 | 978 | 1891 |
| November 30 2020 | 7790 | 38123 | 243 | 57 | 860 | 1641 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.3 | 4.2% | 36 | 0.31% | 77 | 0.67% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 8.9 | 12.3% | 106 | 0.78% | 206 | 1.51% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 19.1 | 26% | 224 | 1.07% | 409 | 1.95% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 12.7 | 15.8% | 136 | 1% | 270 | 1.98% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 9.1 | 12.3% | 106 | 1.01% | 207 | 1.98% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 9.9 | 12% | 103 | 0.82% | 197 | 1.57% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 8.0 | 9.5% | 82 | 0.71% | 146 | 1.27% |
| 70+ | 1 | 6.1 | 7.8% | 67 | 0.64% | 129 | 1.23% |
| All ages | 34 | 77.1 | 100% | 860 | 0.82% | 1641 | 1.57% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 24 2020 | 4376 | 22581 | 120 | 47 | 938 | 1392 |
| November 25 2020 | 4455 | 22690 | 123 | 48 | 944 | 1369 |
| November 26 2020 | 4530 | 22766 | 125 | 49 | 950 | 1307 |
| November 27 2020 | 4531 | 22828 | 126 | 50 | 838 | 1173 |
| November 28 2020 | 4535 | 22892 | 127 | 50 | 738 | 1097 |
| November 29 2020 | 4598 | 22959 | 130 | 51 | 704 | 1087 |
| November 30 2020 | 4666 | 23035 | 132 | 51 | 697 | 1086 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.7 | 4% | 28 | 0.36% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 5.6 | 7.9% | 55 | 0.65% | 89 | 1.06% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 6.4 | 13.9% | 97 | 1.36% | 160 | 2.25% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 7.7 | 18.7% | 130 | 1.55% | 191 | 2.27% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 9.6 | 17.9% | 125 | 1.61% | 188 | 2.42% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 7.3 | 15.8% | 110 | 1.13% | 174 | 1.79% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4.6 | 9% | 63 | 0.75% | 122 | 1.45% |
| 70+ | 14 | 7.9 | 12.8% | 89 | 1.25% | 123 | 1.73% |
| All ages | 68 | 51.7 | 100% | 697 | 1.08% | 1086 | 1.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 24 2020 | 3345 | 14879 | 122 | 38 | 948 | 1354 |
| November 25 2020 | 3407 | 14958 | 125 | 39 | 766 | 1354 |
| November 26 2020 | 3465 | 15055 | 128 | 41 | 744 | 1337 |
| November 27 2020 | 3465 | 15195 | 128 | 41 | 711 | 1281 |
| November 28 2020 | 3558 | 15226 | 136 | 41 | 676 | 1161 |
| November 29 2020 | 3580 | 15261 | 139 | 41 | 557 | 939 |
| November 30 2020 | 3619 | 15354 | 142 | 41 | 481 | 898 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.7 | 5.2% | 25 | 0.46% | 44 | 0.81% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 3.1 | 9.4% | 45 | 0.83% | 78 | 1.44% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 5.7 | 13.1% | 63 | 1.39% | 111 | 2.45% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 6.4 | 15% | 72 | 1.33% | 144 | 2.65% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 5.4 | 12.3% | 59 | 1.19% | 132 | 2.65% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 7.4 | 15% | 72 | 1.06% | 142 | 2.09% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 6.0 | 11.4% | 55 | 0.87% | 118 | 1.86% |
| 70+ | 4 | 7.7 | 18.7% | 90 | 1.42% | 129 | 2.04% |
| All ages | 39 | 44.6 | 100% | 481 | 1.06% | 898 | 1.98% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 24 2020 | 7500 | 39690 | 151 | 33 | 1274 | 1874 |
| November 25 2020 | 7651 | 39989 | 155 | 34 | 1366 | 1818 |
| November 26 2020 | 7761 | 40101 | 157 | 34 | 1312 | 1743 |
| November 27 2020 | 7813 | 40286 | 157 | 35 | 1172 | 1629 |
| November 28 2020 | 7906 | 40422 | 158 | 35 | 1061 | 1680 |
| November 29 2020 | 8011 | 40550 | 158 | 35 | 1092 | 1726 |
| November 30 2020 | 8087 | 40669 | 162 | 35 | 1006 | 1638 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.9 | 3.7% | 37 | 0.31% | 59 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 11.0 | 10.1% | 102 | 0.62% | 154 | 0.93% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 18.4 | 20.9% | 210 | 0.99% | 334 | 1.57% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 14.9 | 14.8% | 149 | 1.1% | 270 | 1.99% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 12.4 | 13.6% | 137 | 1.01% | 204 | 1.5% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 13.0 | 13.1% | 132 | 0.93% | 231 | 1.63% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 11.3 | 11.6% | 117 | 0.82% | 186 | 1.31% |
| 70+ | 15 | 13.1 | 12.1% | 122 | 0.94% | 200 | 1.54% |
| All ages | 76 | 98.0 | 100% | 1006 | 0.85% | 1638 | 1.39% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 24 2020 | 25755 | 270881 | 742 | 77 | 4407 | 6261 |
| November 25 2020 | 25990 | 271803 | 744 | 77 | 4270 | 6034 |
| November 26 2020 | 26367 | 272956 | 749 | 80 | 4144 | 5777 |
| November 27 2020 | 26412 | 273981 | 757 | 80 | 3482 | 5357 |
| November 28 2020 | 26843 | 274307 | 775 | 80 | 3369 | 5495 |
| November 29 2020 | 27236 | 275143 | 782 | 80 | 3367 | 5516 |
| November 30 2020 | 27489 | 275850 | 785 | 80 | 3172 | 5266 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 14 | 20.7 | 6% | 189 | 0.31% | 291 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 26 | 51.6 | 15% | 477 | 0.67% | 874 | 1.23% |
| 20-29 | 51 | 74.9 | 21.9% | 695 | 0.67% | 1184 | 1.14% |
| 30-39 | 44 | 58.7 | 17.4% | 551 | 0.72% | 862 | 1.13% |
| 40-49 | 37 | 53.6 | 14.6% | 464 | 0.71% | 732 | 1.12% |
| 50-59 | 44 | 41.1 | 10.9% | 346 | 0.53% | 588 | 0.9% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 28.4 | 7.5% | 238 | 0.44% | 406 | 0.74% |
| 70+ | 22 | 25.7 | 6.7% | 212 | 0.43% | 329 | 0.67% |
| All ages | 253 | 354.7 | 100% | 3172 | 0.58% | 5266 | 0.96% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 24 2020 | 363973 | 2104756 | 16209 | 3115 | 57662 | 85130 |
| November 25 2020 | 369442 | 2116549 | 16457 | 3178 | 57073 | 83551 |
| November 26 2020 | 374537 | 2125202 | 16658 | 3240 | 57779 | 81149 |
| November 27 2020 | 375837 | 2133700 | 16715 | 3257 | 51989 | 74672 |
| November 28 2020 | 380870 | 2138110 | 16882 | 3285 | 49033 | 74559 |
| November 29 2020 | 384701 | 2143790 | 16999 | 3307 | 46229 | 72332 |
| November 30 2020 | 387235 | 2149996 | 17095 | 3313 | 42290 | 70477 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 108 | 192.9 | 4.5% | 1918 | 0.3% | 3079 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 300 | 468.4 | 11.2% | 4741 | 0.63% | 7773 | 1.03% |
| 20-29 | 386 | 714.1 | 17.1% | 7227 | 0.95% | 11895 | 1.57% |
| 30-39 | 379 | 640.4 | 15.5% | 6539 | 0.86% | 11030 | 1.46% |
| 40-49 | 353 | 609.9 | 14.4% | 6101 | 0.87% | 10404 | 1.49% |
| 50-59 | 410 | 622.6 | 15% | 6343 | 0.78% | 10863 | 1.33% |
| 60-69 | 269 | 478.6 | 11.3% | 4759 | 0.63% | 7956 | 1.05% |
| 70+ | 329 | 482.3 | 11% | 4662 | 0.73% | 7478 | 1.17% |
| All ages | 2534 | 4209.1 | 100% | 42290 | 0.73% | 70477 | 1.21% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 156.8 | 151.4 | 195.4 | 77.1 | 186.1 | 30% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168 | 51.7 | 95.9 | 40% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 198.5 | 44.6 | 127.9 | 38.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 138.5 | 93 | 156.9 | 98 | 128.7 | 35.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96.3 | 123 | 114 | 354.7 | 468.4 | 28% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 102.7 | 157.2 | 4209.1 | 6440.6 | 34.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.51 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-21 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3198"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges